Iowa election markets beat the polls
A $5-limit university market outperformed 964 national polls in 74% of U.S. presidential-election comparisons between 1988 and 2004.
Source: Scientific AmericanCollective forecasting
Be precise on your big bets.
We apply the power of prediction markets to your forecast process.
Leverage the wisdom of your hive improving engagement and data quality in the process.
HiveForecast transforms pipeline reviews into prediction markets that surface more accurate forecast data you and your partners can trust.
- Collective forecasting embedded directly into Salesforce
- More accurate forecast data grounded in knowledge of your hive.
- Keeps your sales team engaged and your opportunity data up to date.
Prediction markets work!
History shows that prediction markets can model probabilities more accurately than other traditional methods at a fraction of the cost.
These stories show how prediction markets can be used to improve forecast accuracy and data quality.
HP employees beat official sales forecasts
A 20-30 person internal market on printer sales was closer to actuals than HP's official forecast in 6 of 8 tests, while exposing uncertainty bands.
Source: Mohr CollaborativeHollywood Stock Exchange matches film experts
Play-money traders on HSX produced box-office and Oscar predictions as accurate as professional forecasters, proving incentives matter more than cash.
Source: Artificial MarketsGoogle's markets stay calibrated
Googlers logged 175k forecasts on ship dates, COVID, and tech trends; probabilities stayed close to perfect calibration months ahead of resolution.
Source: Google Cloud BlogForecast better with HiveForecast!
Opportunities above a certain threshold become a lightweight collective forecasting market. Reps trade virtual coins, the system updates probability curves, and outcomes settle automatically.
Spin up markets automatically
When an Opportunity is created and its value is above a defined threshold, HiveForecast creates a market seeded at the 33% base rate with an owner stake.
Let everyone bet with coins
Teammates buy Yes or No shares, seeing cost and price impact before they confirm.
Close fairly, settle cleanly
Markets lock 48 hours before the close date or stage change; only eligible trades settle, late trades auto-refund.
Reward calibrated forecasters
Settlement updates wallets, leaderboards, and quantifiable calibration scores so admins can see who consistently calls it right.
Salesforce-native integration
Embed the market panel directly on the Opportunity page, launch trades through a guided ticket, and keep teams aligned with portfolio and leaderboard views.
Ready to ship forecasting people actually want to do?
Book a demoFrequently asked questions
How do the coins work?
Every user starts with a wallet of 1,000 virtual coins. Trades debit and credit the ledger, but no real currency changes hands.
Can users lose real money?
No. Coins are playmoney designed to drive engagement and provide insightful signals without compliance risk.
How are probabilities computed?
HiveForecast uses an LMSR automated market maker. Liquidity is tuned via the “b” parameter so admins control how quickly prices move.
What stops last-minute betting?
Markets stop accepting new trades 48 hours before the Opportunity close window. Any trade newer than that is automatically refunded at resolution.
Does HiveForecast change Opportunity fields?
No. We display market-derived insights alongside your existing fields, keeping your pipeline pristine while enhancing context.
How is data access controlled?
Forecast data respects Salesforce sharing rules. Apex runs with sharing, enforces CRUD/FLS, and uses platform events for auditable updates.
Book a demo
See HiveForecast in action with your Opportunity lifecycle. We’ll walk through setup, collective forecasting mechanics, and how quantifiable calibration insights plug into your forecast cadence.